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RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Season


RainmanTime
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By a show of hands... who here on the board remembers my semi-regular earthquake predictions for the California San Andreas fault zones? :)

 

Well, I figured that since things are certainly heating up around the entire Ring Of Fire, it would be a good idea to run my models and set out some formal predictions for this coming spring season. For those who remember, I have a MATLAB model that I have built over the years that is based on surface temperature data. And it allows me to bracket some dates on either side of the vernal and autumnal equinoxes where it is my belief that the probability of earthquakes in this region are the highest.

 

Let me just stop the babbling and get to it....Here are my prediction parameters for this coming (spring 2008) earthquake "season":

 

TIME FRAME

 

<font color="black">Start Date: April 11 2008

 

End Date: June 12 2008 [/color]

 

SPACE FRAME

 

<font color="black">From the US/Mexican border at California/Baja up to the "bend" of the San Andreas fault just off the Northern California coast at Petrolia.[/color]

 

MAGNITUDE RANGE

 

<font color="black">Between 5.9 and 7.1[/color]

 

To HDRkid: This is how MY RV rolls! :P

 

RMT

 

 

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Here a link i use to help see the results that may help you as well.

 

http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

 

I believe they are importnat in time travel locations of destinations as they may shift the earth postion in space. I have also placed many earthquake posts in here for past reference.

 

This is the best way i could show you what i mean.

 

http://www.geocities.com/senol_gulgonul/sun/

 

or this link

 

http://www.srrb.noaa.gov/highlights/sunrise/azel.html

 

Regards,

 

Blair

 

You were right about 7.1 but in china.

 

 

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Re: RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Sea

 

if i where MOD:

 

Please Ray move this experiment to Real Science Thread...

You are absolutely correct, recall. I posted it in TT discussions because this was where all my other EQ predictions were (prior to the Real Science forum showing up). But now that we have this forum, you are correct that it belongs here.

 

Thanks for keeping me honest! ;)

 

RMT

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like some scientists are predicting in the same timeframe as myself:

 

http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=72c4cdd8-b46f-4311-9785-98c96ea9c528&k=59881

 

The chance of a major earthquake striking Vancouver Island will be slightly higher next month as tiny tremors rattle the earth 40 kilometres beneath our feet.

 

Seismologists forecast the southern half of the Island, including Nanaimo, to enter a period of what they call "episodic tremor and slip" activity in mid-April, as the Juan de Fuca plate grinds underneath the North American plate along what's known as the Cascadia subduction zone.

And my window opens on April 11th...

 

Rogers points out that the more probable source of major damage on the Island is not an extremely rare and deep underground subduction quake, but rather more common earthquakes that are less powerful but felt more intensely because they happen closer to the surface.

This reflects my own theory based on historical seismic and surface temperature data (which was used to develop my MATLAB model). The deeper portions of the plate interfaces are hardly affected by temperatures much at all. However, at the surface of the earth thermal variations in the crust give rise to stresses in the crust. These thermal variations are, in turn, dependent upon the rate of heat flux imparted by the sun, which varies with the angle at which the sun's rays strike the local earth.

 

RMT

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Hi Blair,

 

Your prediction was correct.

 

Sadly CHINA 7.8 Death toll ?

I appreciate the thought, but really my prediction had nothing to do with this. I made it clear my prediction was for the California fault zones. But that does not mean I was denying that quakes would happen elsewhere.

 

My window is still open for the spring heating cycle. I think we will see something here in California before the window closes.

 

RMT

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 months later...

Well, my earthquake window has already closed, so I am not saying this is a "hit", but we just had a 5.8 quake here in SoCal...just as I was walking back into my office from lunch. It was quite a long-duration quake too!

 

http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latest.htm

 

A moderate earthquake occurred at 11:42:15 AM (PDT) on Tuesday, July 29, 2008.

 

The magnitude 5.8 event occurred 3 km (2 miles) SW of Chino Hills, CA.

 

The hypocentral depth is 12 km ( 8 miles).

 

Rockin-n-rolling here in the Southland! :D

 

RMT

 

 

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Re: RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Sea

 

I do, and as soon as I read about the earthquake in the news I remembered RMT's board discussion. I logged on here right now to see specifically if you/others were discussing it. I'm assuming your ok. You said that you were prepared for this. Did you feel it? If so what was it like?

 

 

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Re: RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Sea

 

Reactor,

 

I'm assuming your ok. You said that you were prepared for this. Did you feel it? If so what was it like?

Yep, I'm fine. Thanks for asking. It has really been a pretty big non-event. No injuries we have heard of yet, and so far they only found 1 brick wall in Pomona that fell down. Pomona is where I teach (Cal Poly, Pomona) and is close to the quake epicenter.

 

I was coming back into my office near LAX after lunch when it occurred. At first I did not really feel it but I heard someone in the office next door yelling "earthquake". Then as I got into my office I saw the partition walls jiggling, and I felt the undulations under my feet. It was a freaky feeling. And it came in waves (as these things usually do). I'd estimate it lasted for about 10 seconds...which may sounds brief but when you are going thru it time seems to stretch and it feels like it was longer.

 

Just got home...nothing even fell off any shelves or anything! But I am sure my dogs freaked out at the time of the quake! :)

 

RMT

 

 

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Re: RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Sea

 

Just in case...Form Project Camelot entry log 31:

 

We have just received this message from Miriam Delicado, whom we know and have been planning to interview:

 

 

 

Hello to all of you.

 

 

 

PLEASE I ask you all to get ready for a LARGE quake on the west coast.

 

 

 

I was almost blown away by this one that is coming so I know it will be BIG OVER 7.......

 

 

 

TELL ANYONE WHO WILL LISTEN!

 

 

 

Get water and supplies ready!!! TELL your friends.

 

I have a high accuracy rate. I felt the last one in Calf but was on the road and could not tell you.

 

 

 

I see a spot that is a little north east of Los Angeles.

 

 

 

THIS could be off but I tell you it is coming to the coast area from Mexico to Oregon.

 

 

 

BE PREPARED! I will send light.

 

 

 

Miriam

 

 

 

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Re: RMT Earthquake Predictions for Spring 2008 Sea

 

We have just received this message from Miriam Delicado, whom we know and have been planning to interview:

 

Hello to all of you.

 

PLEASE I ask you all to get ready for a LARGE quake on the west coast.

 

I was almost blown away by this one that is coming so I know it will be BIG OVER 7.......

 

TELL ANYONE WHO WILL LISTEN!

 

Get water and supplies ready!!! TELL your friends.

 

I have a high accuracy rate. I felt the last one in Calf but was on the road and could not tell you.

 

I see a spot that is a little north east of Los Angeles.

 

THIS could be off but I tell you it is coming to the coast area from Mexico to Oregon.

 

BE PREPARED! I will send light.

 

Miriam

How stupid! Of COURSE we know a big one is coming. But true to form of all these doom & gloomers, she cannot tell us WHEN it is coming. Conveniently, that part is left out. At least I am willing to be proven wrong by posting specific date ranges!!! When someone is willing to do what I do (and risk being wrong), then I will pay attention.

 

RMT

 

 

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  • 7 months later...

SOCAL

 

SOCAL Area:

 

Quoted from GLP

 

San Andreas Fault - Warning of Big One on Socal news through out the day today

 

Quote

 

 

 

Can't believe there are no posts on this... especially after the largest earthquake drill ever in November.

 

 

 

I'm in Los Angeles for a few months and on the news today (through out the day actually) they've been talking about the ***unusual earthquake swarms in socal...

 

 

 

how one school has even closed after receiving warning from the California EMA...

 

 

 

that warning was on the news as well. (I've been watching 4KNBC.)

 

 

 

they keep mentioning the Big One and how there is a chance of 7.0 r HIGHER in the next few days!!

 

 

 

Most of the links I found were from www.latimes.com

 

 

 

-------------------------

 

 

 

The California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) issued a warning to operational Red Cross areas throughout the state yesterday after a 4.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred three miles south of Bombay Beach, Imperial County at 4:55 am. Although there were no damages or injuries reported as a result of this event, The U.S. Geological Survey has been tracking an "unusual sequence" of over 50 aftershocks, that have been clustered about 1 to 3 kilometers southwest of a projected extension of the San Andreas Fault, in the Salton Sea area. The majority of the magnitudes have been less than 2.5, although ABC has reported magnitudes as high as 3.5. Cal EMA recommended to the Red Cross that operational areas reach out to raise awareness of the events, and "ensure the readiness of systems essential to emergency operations".

 

 

 

Just google "california earthquake warning march 25, 2009"

 

 

 

----------------------------

 

 

 

Study: San Andreas could see major quake after almost 150 quiet years

 

 

 

NAMIC DAILYLEAD | 01/27/2009

 

 

 

Southern California is overdue for major earthquake activity, according to new research from the University of California, Irvine. The study, appearing in the new issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research, revised the average time between large movements along the San Andreas fault down from 200 years to 137 years. The last major temblor on the fault occurred in 1857.

 

 

 

www.smartbrief.com/news/namic/storyDetails.jsp?issueid=2B0​C6C27-5545-4A9F-8AA3-98B0BA8469A9&copyid=5420699F-7F26-4CD0-​AFFA-C5C4C60A78C0&lmcid=

 

 

 

 

 

-----------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

Salton Sea is swarming with earthquake data

 

 

 

 

 

As seismologists sharpen their focus on the desert region, which has had more than 200 temblors since Saturday, they're learning more about how quakes in one area can affect activity on nearby faults.

 

By Jia-Rui Chong

 

9:50 PM PDT, March 25, 2009

 

It's one of the great mysteries of Southern California seismology: Every couple of years, the remote desert area around the Salton Sea is shaken by swarms of small to moderate earthquakes that often last several days.

 

 

 

The swarms returned this week, with the area recording more than 200 temblors since Saturday -- including several that were felt Wednesday. But this time, scientists had sophisticated instruments in the ground to record the activity, helping them to better understand the swarms and how they can affect seismic risk elsewhere.

 

 

 

www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-quake-swarm26-2009mar26,0​,2661746.story

 

 

 

-------------------------------

 

end quoted...

 

:confused: :confused: :confused:

 

 

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  • 8 months later...

Pacific Northwest Earthquakes

 

this one is related...

 

Quoted:

 

GPS data are a more direct way of telling where tectonic slippage is occurring and where it isn't, says John Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. 'That data from both GPS and seismic instruments are pointing in the same direction is comforting,' he adds.

 

A major quake rupturing the 300-kilometer length of the Cascadia subduction zone that runs along the Washington coast would measure magnitude 8.9, Melbourne and Chapman estimate. If the entire 1,100-kilometer subduction zone slipped at once, the quake would be a magnitude-9.2 whopper rivaling the tsunami-spawning quake that slammed Indonesia in December 2004 (SN: 1/8/05, p. 19). Field studies suggest that quakes of such magnitude happen along the Cascadia subduction zone once every 550 years, on average. The last one struck the region in January of 1700 (SN: 11/29/97, p. 348).

 

Quake hazard analyses for the region, based partially on seismic data, already account for possible tectonic slippage at depths of 25 kilometers, says Garry Rogers, an earthquake scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada in Sidney, British Columbia. Nevertheless, he notes, the new findings provide 'more precise measurements than we've had before…. This study confirms a lot of what we've known about.'

 

end quoted

 

from:

 

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/11/cascadia-earthquakes-strike-further-inland/

 

:yum:

 

 

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Re: Pacific Northwest Earthquakes

 

Next thing you know we'll have someone predict that there will be earthquakes around the ring of fire,

 

with the most substantial located in or around Polynesia.

 

lol. When isn't there ? ;)

 

I've looked at the seismic graphs for over a couple years now,

 

and it's always that same horse shoe lit up like a christmas tree.

 

What gives?

 

 

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