claim Time Traveler on Reddit claim Japan will win Qatar World Cup.

[Mylo.X.]

Some person claiming to be a time traveler on Reddit time travel sub claims that Japan will win World Cup. At the moment, Japan have against the odds progressed to last 16 knockout stages (beating both Germany and Spain in the group stage). 
 

if Japan beat Croatia then they meet favourites Brazil in the Quarter finals.

 

For the record, I do not believe Japan will win the World Cup…. But if they did? Then it’d be against all the odds. 

[Mylo.X.]

Lol… GIANT fail to that time traveller who made this claim. 
 

Japan knocked out at the last 16 stage on penalties.

[Darby]

On 12/5/2022 at 7:51 AM, Mylo.X. said:

Some person claiming to be a time traveler on Reddit time travel sub claims that Japan will win World Cup. At the moment, Japan have against the odds progressed to last 16 knockout stages (beating both Germany and Spain in the group stage). 
 

if Japan beat Croatia then they meet favourites Brazil in the Quarter finals.

 

For the record, I do not believe Japan will win the World Cup…. But if they did? Then it’d be against all the odds. 

And the question is what is meant by , "Win against all odds"?  Every contest in sport or any other competition has a favorite and an underdog (aka "dog").  In the end, assuming ties are not accepted as a final score, either the favorite or the dog prevails.  So let's assume the dog wins.  I can guarantee you that somewhere at some time someone "predicted" that the dog would win.

 

What "the odds" or "the line" really means in professional sports betting is where you got the idea that Japan is up "against all the odds".  Who the book maker lists as the favorite and underdog and their odds has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with which team they believe has the best chance to win.  Nada, zip, zero.  "The line" set by the book maker is a measure of perceived public sentiment to place a bet on a team given the posted odds and is used to assure that all the money bet on the contest is evenly divided among the two contestants/teams. They do this by measuring the public sentiment and setting the line appropriately with that in mind - and a boatload of calculus.

 

Bookmakers are not gamblers.  They are mathematicians and public sentiment pollsters.  When they set the line for a contest they could care less who wins or loses.  They take their 5% percent (the vig" or "vigorish") off the top of each team pool and pay out all the remaining money to the holders of winning bets.  All they care about is that the  money bet is evenly divided between the two teams so that their money is never at risk by being based on who wins and who loses. 

 

If the end of the week comes and the pools are not in balance they go to a layoff service.  Explaining a layoff service is too complicated for a simple post.

 

None of this involves time travelers.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Darby

[Mylo.X.]

On 12/8/2022 at 11:33 AM, Darby said:

And the question is what is meant by , "Win against all odds"?  Every contest in sport or any other competition has a favorite and an underdog (aka "dog").  In the end, assuming ties are not accepted as a final score, either the favorite or the dog prevails.  So let's assume the dog wins.  I can guarantee you that somewhere at some time someone "predicted" that the dog would win.

 

What "the odds" or "the line" really means in professional sports betting is where you got the idea that Japan is up "against all the odds".  Who the book maker lists as the favorite and underdog and their odds has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with which team they believe has the best chance to win.  Nada, zip, zero.  "The line" set by the book maker is a measure of perceived public sentiment to place a bet on a team given the posted odds and is used to assure that all the money bet on the contest is evenly divided among the two contestants/teams. They do this by measuring the public sentiment and setting the line appropriately with that in mind - and a boatload of calculus.

 

Bookmakers are not gamblers.  They are mathematicians and public sentiment pollsters.  When they set the line for a contest they could care less who wins or loses.  They take their 5% percent (the vig" or "vigorish") off the top of each team pool and pay out all the remaining money to the holders of winning bets.  All they care about is that the  money bet is evenly divided between the two teams so that their money is never at risk by being based on who wins and who loses. 

 

If the end of the week comes and the pools are not in balance they go to a layoff service.  Explaining a layoff service is too complicated for a simple post.

 

None of this involves time travelers.

So where’s the TLDR?